As the world’s population approaches an estimated 9 billion by 2050, concerns over sustainable resources, employment, and healthcare for such a vast number are mounting. The prospect of implementing a global one-child policy, akin to China’s past measures, has occasionally surfaced as a potential solution to curb population growth. While the practicality of such a policy gaining widespread acceptance remains highly unlikely, it prompts exploration into its potential implications.
Enforcing a strict, global one-child policy could result in chaotic consequences.
1. A Massive Increase in Abortions
If you oppose abortion, brace yourself for the implications of a global one child policy. Such a measure would result in an unprecedented surge in abortions worldwide. Echoing practices seen in countries like China, a significant proportion of these abortions would likely target female fetuses.
Since the widespread availability of affordable ultrasound technology, countries such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia have seen a disturbing trend of selective abortions, overwhelmingly targeting female babies. Economist Amartya Sen estimated that by 1990, approximately 100 million baby girls had been aborted globally due to gender preference, even without the enforcement of a universal one child policy. If implemented globally, this policy would lead to tens of millions of female fetuses being terminated each year.
Furthermore, in societies where preferences for male children are not as pronounced, the number of abortions would still increase. Children diagnosed with illnesses or disabilities would also face a higher likelihood of being aborted in this scenario. And in a draconian implementation of such a policy, governments would resort to forced abortions to ensure compliance, mandating the termination of pregnancies that exceed the one child limit.
For those who already find abortion contentious, the prospect of a global one child policy would escalate these ethical dilemmas to unprecedented levels, challenging even the most progressive views on reproductive rights.
2. There’d be a Massive Gender Imbalance
It’s a stark reality that in many countries, women face systemic discrimination, being relegated to second-class citizenship. They are often denied the right to work, drive, choose their spouse, endure economic disadvantages, and contend with pervasive gender biases in roles like agriculture and industry. Introduce a global one child policy, and the repercussions for girl babies would be dire.
China’s experience serves as a chilling example. There, societal expectations heavily favor sons, with women traditionally expected to marry and care for their husband’s parents without pursuing independent careers. In rural and economically disadvantaged areas, this preference has led to the widespread abortion, abandonment, or neglect of baby girls. The outcome: a population with 30 million more men than women, creating regions where female scarcity mirrors a dystopian scenario.
While some Western countries may hold more egalitarian views towards gender, globally, the trend would likely lean towards devaluing girls. This imbalance could lead to a surplus of males, placing unsustainable strain on our planet’s resources. And this is just one facet of the broader implications…
3. A Massive Increase in Government Bureaucracy
Implementing a strict one child policy on a global scale would necessitate monumental changes in laws and governmental structures, including potentially amending the American Constitution to enforce such measures. However, declaring such a policy and effectively enforcing it are two vastly different challenges, as evidenced by China’s experience with its own one child policy.
During the peak of China’s policy, an extensive bureaucratic apparatus was required to monitor and enforce compliance. The state employed around half a million people full-time and an additional 85 million part-time to ensure that families adhered to the one child limit. To put this into perspective, this workforce equaled the combined populations of France and Taiwan solely dedicated to monitoring birth rates.
In smaller-scale examples, even a typical Chinese village of 500 residents required 16 staff members solely tasked with monitoring local couples. This level of state intervention would be unprecedented for many countries, including those in the European Union, where complaints about bureaucratic overhead are common despite a much smaller administrative presence.
The sheer scale of bureaucracy needed to enforce a global one child policy would be staggering and potentially overwhelming, challenging even for nations accustomed to larger governmental roles.
4. Kidnapping and Human Trafficking Would Rise
If you oppose abortion, brace yourself for the implications of a global one child policy. Such a measure would result in an unprecedented surge in abortions worldwide. Echoing practices seen in countries like China, a significant proportion of these abortions would likely target female fetuses.
Since the widespread availability of affordable ultrasound technology, countries such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia have seen a disturbing trend of selective abortions, overwhelmingly targeting female babies. Economist Amartya Sen estimated that by 1990, approximately 100 million baby girls had been aborted globally due to gender preference, even without the enforcement of a universal one child policy. If implemented globally, this policy would lead to tens of millions of female fetuses being terminated each year.
Furthermore, in societies where preferences for male children are not as pronounced, the number of abortions would still increase. Children diagnosed with illnesses or disabilities would also face a higher likelihood of being aborted in this scenario. And in a draconian implementation of such a policy, governments would resort to forced abortions to ensure compliance, mandating the termination of pregnancies that exceed the one child limit.
For those who already find abortion contentious, the prospect of a global one child policy would escalate these ethical dilemmas to unprecedented levels, challenging even the most progressive views on reproductive rights.
5. Empowering Women
After detailing several concerning aspects of a global one child policy, here’s a positive outcome for women. In China’s wealthier urban centers, the policy had an unexpected effect—it empowered educated women more than ever before.
The logic behind this is straightforward. With significantly fewer women available, men must compete fiercely for a partner. As a result, women can take their time and have the luxury of choosing a partner later in life, ensuring they select from the best options available. In China, this shift has led to a generation of educated women prioritizing their careers and independence, delaying marriage until later stages of life. For middle-class women in developing nations, where there is an abundance of men, this surplus paradoxically offers them greater autonomy and freedom compared to previous generations.
It’s important to note that this benefit primarily applies to relatively affluent and well-educated women residing in urban areas. Nonetheless, it remains a significant development worth acknowledging.
6. A More Sustainable World
While a one child policy can undoubtedly provoke economic and social turmoil, surprisingly, it may also hold some benefits. Research from 2014 suggested that a moderately low birth rate could stimulate an economic upswing in affluent nations.
However, a strict one child policy eliminates any moderation in birth rates. Despite this, there are distinct advantages. As previously highlighted, our planet is becoming increasingly overcrowded. We’re approaching a tipping point akin to the Black Hole of Calcutta, where the pressure of overpopulation looms ominously. Rather than urgently crying out for relief, we passively allow the world to cram more and more people into our finite living spaces, setting the stage for potential societal collapse.
Implementing a global one child policy could decisively curb this trend. In China alone, a single generation under such policies prevented the birth of an estimated 300 million additional individuals. Extrapolating this impact to the current global population could potentially spare us from accommodating approximately 2 billion additional mouths to feed.
7. Brutal Punishments
Enforcing a one child policy is an immensely challenging task that historically has required draconian measures. Convincing couples to adhere strictly to such a limit is exceptionally difficult, and governments resort to severe punishments to enforce compliance.
In China, where the one child policy was rigorously enforced, women who became pregnant with a second child often faced forced abortions, a practice widely considered brutal and inhumane. Additionally, compulsory sterilization was implemented for those who violated the policy, alongside hefty fines and even confiscation of property. Despite these harsh penalties, some families still risked having additional children.
Such measures are not only controversial but also raise ethical concerns, as they infringe upon basic human rights. In more oppressive regimes, enforcement could escalate to even more extreme punishments, such as torture and execution, turning prospective parents into criminals for wanting to expand their families.
The enforcement of a one child policy thus poses not only practical challenges but also ethical dilemmas about the extent to which governments should intervene in reproductive choices and human rights.
8. Creating a Generation of Little Emperors
We all know someone who loves to criticize today’s kids as entitled and overly sensitive. But imagine if they could glimpse into a future generation shaped by a global one child policy. In China, this phenomenon is known as the era of ‘little emperors’. These children grow up without siblings, often pampered and given everything they desire by their parents. The result? A generation potentially plagued by what’s termed as ‘only child syndrome’.
While the stereotype may be exaggerated, there’s evidence to suggest these ‘little emperors’ are indeed more risk-averse, less optimistic, and less inclined towards entrepreneurial endeavors compared to previous generations. Australian economists, cited by NPR, have highlighted these traits, pointing to potential challenges in a world that thrives on innovation and dynamic ideas to propel economic growth.
Predicting the full impact of such a generation on the planet is complex. Yet, if one believes that entitled Millennials are already a drag on society, envisioning a global cohort of ‘little emperors’ could seem like a harbinger of societal decline.
9. Chaos in the Social System
The “4-2-1 problem” has become a significant concern in China, reflecting a critical challenge in elder care and economic support. Traditionally, social systems relied on a structure where a greater number of workers supported the elderly through either direct care or financial contributions from taxes, ensuring sustainable elder care throughout the 20th century.
However, with the implementation of a one child policy, the dynamics have shifted drastically. Instead of multiple working family members supporting one elderly grandparent, China faces a future where a single worker may be responsible for supporting two parents and four grandparents (thus, 4-2-1). This imbalance presents a daunting challenge.
The foreseeable consequence is a potential decline in living standards for future workers. In Western societies, this scenario could mean longer work hours and extended working years to maintain support for the growing elderly population. Conversely, pensioners may experience reduced pensions and increased financial hardships.
Addressing this issue will require innovative solutions and adjustments to social policies to ensure sustainable support for both current and future generations of elderly citizens.
10. Eventual Extinction
Let’s delve into the whimsical realm of reductio ad absurdum for this final contemplation. Imagine a hypothetical world where every government worldwide has unanimously adopted a strict one-child policy. What would unfold over the course of several generations? Initially, global population growth would sharply decline. Then, it would stabilize. Eventually, it would begin to contract, initially slowly but accelerating rapidly over time. Fast forward about 33 generations, and humanity would have effectively bred itself out of existence.
Consider the mechanics: with each couple limited to one child, each succeeding generation would halve the population. Two parents would produce one offspring who, in turn, would pair with another single-child offspring, resulting in just one descendant per couple. Starting from an initial four individuals (two couples), this pattern would diminish humanity’s numbers down to a single replacement. Eventually, the last remaining couple would produce a single child who, with no mate to reproduce with, would fail to perpetuate the lineage. Thus, the human species would face extinction.
Interestingly, not everyone views this outcome negatively. There exists a group known as the Voluntary Human Extinction Movement, advocating for the cessation of reproduction and the demise of our species as a moral obligation. If you find yourself reading this in a dystopian future akin to *Children of Men*, heed this cautionary tale.
